Measured data · last updated 6 October 2026
How much do EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY move after US CPI?
EUR/USD usually moves about 0.26% of its price in the release minute: across 66 US CPI releases from March 2021 to September 2026, that was its typical (median) biggest move inside the minute the figures came out. GBP/USD's was 0.30% and USD/JPY's 0.32%.
In pips: over the last 11 releases (October 2025 to September 2026), the biggest release-minute move was typically about 24 pips for EUR/USD, 32 pips for GBP/USD and 31 pips for USD/JPY. Recently the move has mostly faded by the end of the day: EUR/USD's typical net move by the New York close over those 11 releases was about 9 pips.
These are measurements, not estimates: one-minute prices around every release, from the same price feed behind Impact's charts. The method is set out in full below. For gold, see how much gold moves after US CPI.
66 US CPI releases, as a share of the price
The typical (median) release, one release in ten, and the largest, as a percentage of the price just before 8:30 New York time.
| Measure | EUR/USD (66 releases) |
GBP/USD (59) |
USD/JPY (66) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest move in the release minute | 0.26% · 0.53% · 1.05% | 0.30% · 0.58% · 1.05% | 0.32% · 0.56% · 1.37% |
| High–low range, first 15 minutes | 0.43% · 0.80% · 1.68% | 0.42% · 0.95% · 1.71% | 0.47% · 0.98% · 1.89% |
| Net move after 5 minutes, either way | 0.21% · 0.58% · 1.28% | 0.19% · 0.69% · 1.32% | 0.19% · 0.56% · 1.25% |
| Net move after 60 minutes, either way | 0.23% · 0.71% · 1.88% | 0.20% · 0.77% · 1.94% | 0.26% · 0.74% · 1.92% |
| Net move by the New York close, either way | 0.33% · 0.88% · 2.52% | 0.32% · 0.96% · 2.70% | 0.36% · 0.94% · 3.51% |
Each cell: typical (median) · one release in ten (90th percentile) · largest. Releases from 10 March 2021 to 11 September 2026. The price data has no GBP/USD for April to September 2021 or for 11 May 2022, and no GBP/USD 60-minute price for 10 June 2022 (58 releases for that figure).
The last 11 US CPI releases
| Release | EUR/USD biggest move, release minute (pips) |
EUR/USD first-minute direction |
EUR/USD net move by New York close (pips) |
GBP/USD biggest move, release minute (pips) |
USD/JPY biggest move, release minute (pips) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2025 | 37 | Up | +14 | 62 | 61 |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 28 | Up | −7 | 32 | 39 |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 25 | Up | −10 | 37 | 31 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | 25 | Up | +6 | 34 | 36 |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 6 | Down | −34 | 5 | 8 |
| 10 Apr 2026 | 10 | Up | +9 | 15 | 21 |
| 12 May 2026 | 5 | Down | −3 | 7 | 6 |
| 10 Jun 2026 | 12 | Up | −11 | 11 | 9 |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 49 | Up | +5 | 54 | 52 |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 16 | Down | −22 | 21 | 31 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 24 | Down | +1 | 36 | 53 |
Bid prices. A pip is 0.0001 for EUR/USD and GBP/USD and 0.01 for USD/JPY. There was no October 2025 CPI release: it was never published because of the 2025 US government shutdown, and the September 2025 figures came out late, on 24 October.
What the tables show
- The three pairs move together, at different sizes. On 14 July 2026 EUR/USD moved 49 pips in the release minute, GBP/USD 54 and USD/JPY 52.
- Recently the first move has faded. Over the last 11 releases EUR/USD typically moved about 24 pips in the release minute but only about 9 by the New York close: on 14 July 2026 the 49-pip first minute finished the day just 5 pips up. Across all 66 releases since 2021 the close move was larger (0.33% against 0.26%), so this is a recent pattern, not a rule.
- The biggest days were in 2022. On 10 November 2022 EUR/USD finished the New York day 2.52% from its pre-release price and USD/JPY 3.51%: the largest moves by the close in this record.
- The first direction usually holds, not always. EUR/USD finished the day on the same side of its pre-release price as after the first minute in 47 of 66 releases, GBP/USD in 38 of 59 and USD/JPY in 50 of 66.
Impact reports what happened. It gives no trading advice, and past moves say nothing certain about the next release.
Common questions
How much does EUR/USD move after US CPI?
Typically 0.26% of its price in the release minute (66 releases since March 2021), about 24 pips over the last 11 releases; one release in ten moved it more than 0.53%.
Does the CPI move last until the close?
Over the last 11 releases it mostly faded, from about 24 pips in the first minute to about 9 by the New York close for EUR/USD. Over all 66 releases the first direction held to the close in 47.
Is the move caused by CPI alone?
Not necessarily. CPI is published at 8:30 New York time, and other US figures are often published at the same moment, so each figure here describes the market at that moment, not CPI in isolation.
How this was measured
- Releases. Every US Consumer Price Index release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from March 2021 to September 2026 — 66 in all, each at 8:30 New York time — taken from the BLS release archive.
- Prices. One-minute EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY bars on the bid side, from Impact's price feed (the same data as Impact's charts), from two minutes before each release to 17:00 New York time the same day. These are market prices, not any one broker's execution.
- Price just before. The close of the minute before 8:30.
- Biggest move in the release minute. How far the price went from that level, in either direction, during the minute starting at 8:30.
- Net move after N minutes, and by the close. The price at the end of the Nth minute after the release, or at 17:00 New York time, minus the price just before it. Direction is the sign of the move after one minute.
- Left out. A release where the price data has a gap, as listed under the first table. Nothing is estimated to fill a gap.
- Updates. Figures are as of 6 October 2026 and will be refreshed as new releases come out.
See also: gold after US CPI, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and gold after Nonfarm Payrolls, after Fed decisions, and how wide forex spreads get at CPI, Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed decisions.
See it for every release
Impact shows this for each economic release as it happens: second-by-second reaction charts for every instrument the release moved, the spread at news time next to the normal spread, and every past occurrence of the same release.