Measured data · last updated 6 October 2026
How much do EUR/USD, USD/JPY and gold move after Fed decisions?
Less in the first minute than by the end of the day. Across 44 Federal Reserve policy statements from April 2021 to September 2026, EUR/USD's typical (median) biggest move inside the 2:00 pm statement minute was 0.22% of its price, but by the New York close it had typically moved 0.35% either way.
Over the last 9 meetings (September 2025 to September 2026), that was about 13 pips in the statement minute and about 47 pips by the close for EUR/USD, about 18 and 44 pips for USD/JPY, and for gold (8 meetings) about $16 and $53 an ounce. The Fed chair's press conference starts at 2:30 pm, half an hour after the statement.
These are measurements, not estimates: one-minute prices around every statement, from the same price feed behind Impact's charts. The method is set out in full below.
45 Fed decisions, as a share of the price
The typical (median) meeting, one meeting in ten, and the largest, as a percentage of the price just before 2:00 pm New York time.
| Measure | EUR/USD (44 meetings) |
USD/JPY (44) |
Gold (43) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest move in the statement minute | 0.22% · 0.41% · 0.48% | 0.20% · 0.44% · 0.78% | 0.31% · 0.69% · 1.04% |
| High–low range, first 15 minutes | 0.33% · 0.61% · 0.86% | 0.32% · 0.64% · 0.84% | 0.58% · 1.16% · 2.34% |
| Net move after 5 minutes, either way | 0.17% · 0.44% · 0.66% | 0.14% · 0.45% · 0.60% | 0.22% · 0.70% · 1.45% |
| Net move after 60 minutes, either way | 0.25% · 0.69% · 1.04% | 0.24% · 0.60% · 1.34% | 0.51% · 1.40% · 2.20% |
| Net move by the New York close, either way | 0.35% · 0.70% · 1.29% | 0.30% · 0.79% · 1.95% | 0.72% · 2.12% · 2.80% |
Each cell: typical (median) · one meeting in ten (90th percentile) · largest. Statements from 17 March 2021 to 16 September 2026. The price data for 17 March 2021 begins an hour or more after the statement, so that meeting is left out for all three; for gold the data also has a gap on 29 October 2025, and its New York close is missing for 29 January 2025 (42 meetings for that figure).
The last 9 Fed decisions
| Statement | EUR/USD biggest move, statement minute (pips) |
EUR/USD first-minute direction |
EUR/USD net move after 60 min (pips) |
EUR/USD net move by New York close (pips) |
USD/JPY biggest move, statement minute (pips) |
Gold biggest move, statement minute ($/oz) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sep 2025 | 35 | Up | −18 | −40 | 42 | 11 |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 11 | Down | −53 | −47 | 18 | no data |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 18 | Up | +23 | +40 | 31 | 18 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | 13 | Up | +19 | +33 | 7 | 13 |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 8 | Up | −39 | −64 | 14 | 10 |
| 29 Apr 2026 | 11 | Down | −15 | −10 | 16 | 8 |
| 17 Jun 2026 | 47 | Down | −56 | −94 | 22 | 43 |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 33 | Up | +56 | +70 | 32 | 42 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | 12 | Down | −68 | −74 | 15 | 20 |
Bid prices. A pip is 0.0001 for EUR/USD and 0.01 for USD/JPY; gold is in US dollars per troy ounce. Statement dates are the Federal Reserve's own; the Committee meets eight times a year.
What the tables show
- The day matters more than the first minute. Over the last 9 meetings EUR/USD's typical move by the New York close (about 47 pips) was more than three times its typical statement-minute move (about 13). On 18 March 2026 an 8-pip first minute became 64 pips lower by the close.
- The first direction is close to a coin toss. EUR/USD finished the New York day on the same side of its pre-statement price as after the first minute in 26 of 44 meetings, USD/JPY in 27 of 44 and gold in 25 of 42. For comparison, after Nonfarm Payrolls EUR/USD's first direction held in 47 of 65 releases.
- Within the first hour the move often grows. EUR/USD's typical net move after 60 minutes (0.25%) is larger than its typical statement-minute move (0.22%); that hour includes the first 30 minutes of the press conference.
- Gold moves furthest. By the New York close gold typically moved 0.72% of its price, about twice as much as EUR/USD (0.35%) and more than twice as much as USD/JPY (0.30%).
Impact reports what happened. It gives no trading advice, and past moves say nothing certain about the next meeting.
Common questions
What time is the Fed decision?
The FOMC policy statement is published at 2:00 pm New York time on the last day of the meeting, and the Chair's press conference starts at 2:30 pm. Every figure here is measured from the price just before 2:00 pm.
Does the first move after a Fed decision last?
Often not: in 18 of 44 meetings EUR/USD finished the New York day on the other side of its pre-statement price from where the first minute took it.
Is the move caused by the rate decision alone?
No single cause can be separated out. The statement, any new projections and the press conference all land within the same hour, so each figure here describes the market around the decision, not the rate change in isolation.
How this was measured
- Meetings. Every FOMC policy statement published by the Federal Reserve from March 2021 to September 2026 — 45 in all, each at 2:00 pm New York time — taken from the Fed's own meeting calendar. Notation votes that change no rate are not included.
- Prices. One-minute EUR/USD, USD/JPY and XAU/USD bars on the bid side, from Impact's price feed (the same data as Impact's charts), from two minutes before each statement to 17:00 New York time the same day. These are market prices, not any one broker's execution.
- Price just before. The close of the minute before 2:00 pm.
- Biggest move in the statement minute. How far the price went from that level, in either direction, during the minute starting at 2:00 pm.
- Net move after N minutes, and by the close. The price at the end of the Nth minute after the statement, or at 17:00 New York time, minus the price just before it. Direction is the sign of the move after one minute.
- Left out. A meeting where the price data has a gap, as listed under the first table. Nothing is estimated to fill a gap.
- Updates. Figures are as of 6 October 2026 and will be refreshed after new meetings.
See also: how much EUR/USD, USD/JPY and gold move after Nonfarm Payrolls, how wide forex spreads get at CPI, Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed decisions, and how much gold moves after US CPI.
See it for every release
Impact shows this for each economic release as it happens: second-by-second reaction charts for every instrument the release moved, the spread at news time next to the normal spread, and every past occurrence of the same release.