How much does EUR/USD move after Nonfarm Payrolls?

Across 66 Nonfarm Payrolls releases from March 2021 to October 2026, EUR/USD's biggest move inside the release minute was typically (median) 0.27% of its price, and one release in ten moved it more than 0.52% in that minute. Over the last 12 releases (November 2025 to October 2026) that was typically about 26 pips, and by the New York close EUR/USD had typically moved about 26 pips either way.

How much do USD/JPY and gold move after Nonfarm Payrolls?

In the release minute, USD/JPY's biggest move was typically 0.31% of its price (67 releases) and gold's 0.46% (64 releases). Over the last 12 releases that was typically about 36 pips for USD/JPY, and about $40 an ounce for gold over the 11 of those when its market was open.

Measured data · last updated 6 October 2026

How much do EUR/USD, USD/JPY and gold move after Nonfarm Payrolls?

Q: Does the first move after NFP last until the close?

Usually, but not reliably. EUR/USD finished the New York day on the same side of its pre-release price as after the first minute in 47 of 65 releases, USD/JPY in 50 of 67 and gold in 39 of 62.

Q: Is the move caused by the payrolls figure alone?

Not necessarily. The Employment Situation report includes the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings as well as payrolls, and other US data is sometimes published at the same 8:30 New York time, so each figure describes the market at that moment, not one number in isolation.

EUR/USD usually moves about 0.27% of its price in the release minute: across 66 US Nonfarm Payrolls releases from March 2021 to October 2026, that was its typical (median) biggest move inside the minute the figures came out. USD/JPY's was 0.31% and gold's 0.46%.

In pips and dollars: over the last 12 releases (November 2025 to October 2026), EUR/USD's biggest release-minute move was typically about 26 pips, USD/JPY's about 36 pips and gold's about $40 an ounce (11 releases: its market was shut on Good Friday, 3 April). By the New York close the same day, EUR/USD had typically moved about 26 pips either way — and 115 pips on 5 June 2026.

These are measurements, not estimates: one-minute prices around every release, from the same price feed behind Impact's charts. The method is set out in full below.

67 NFP releases, as a share of the price

The typical (median) release, one release in ten, and the largest. Percentages make the years comparable: gold, for one, is priced far higher now than in 2021.

Measure	EUR/USD (66 releases)	USD/JPY (67)	Gold (64)
Biggest move in the release minute	0.27% · 0.52% · 0.73%	0.31% · 0.64% · 1.01%	0.46% · 0.83% · 1.85%
High–low range, first 15 minutes	0.41% · 0.66% · 1.22%	0.47% · 1.05% · 1.44%	0.75% · 1.26% · 2.17%
Net move after 5 minutes, either way	0.23% · 0.50% · 1.00%	0.21% · 0.73% · 1.21%	0.35% · 0.84% · 1.73%
Net move after 60 minutes, either way	0.21% · 0.60% · 1.54%	0.25% · 0.84% · 1.57%	0.42% · 1.17% · 1.71%
Net move by the New York close, either way	0.26% · 0.89% · 1.71%	0.36% · 1.24% · 2.10%	0.71% · 1.84% · 3.08%

Each cell: typical (median) · one release in ten (90th percentile) · largest. Releases from 5 March 2021 to 2 October 2026. EUR/USD has no price data for 5 November 2021. Gold excludes the three Good Friday releases (2 April 2021, 7 April 2023, 3 April 2026), when its market was shut. The New York close figure is missing where the price data has a gap at 17:00 (EUR/USD 65 releases, gold 62).

The last 12 NFP releases

Release	EUR/USD biggest move, release minute (pips)	EUR/USD first-minute direction	EUR/USD net move by New York close (pips)	USD/JPY biggest move, release minute (pips)	Gold biggest move, release minute ($/oz)
20 Nov 2025	20	Up	+13	36	19
16 Dec 2025	18	Up	−23	21	7
9 Jan 2026	18	Down	−13	26	14
11 Feb 2026	62	Down	−29	98	63
6 Mar 2026	29	Up	+53	48	40
3 Apr 2026	25	Down	−32	27	closed
8 May 2026	8	Up	+20	10	8
5 Jun 2026	19	Down	−115	14	18
2 Jul 2026	42	Up	+32	59	55
7 Aug 2026	41	Up	+28	81	46
4 Sep 2026	39	Down	−15	69	83
2 Oct 2026	27	Up	+19	37	41

Bid prices. A pip is 0.0001 for EUR/USD and 0.01 for USD/JPY; gold is in US dollars per troy ounce. There was no October 2025 release: it was never published because of the 2025 US government shutdown. Several releases moved off the usual first Friday (holidays, and the catch-up after the shutdown); the dates are the Bureau of Labor Statistics' own.

What the tables show

Most of the early move comes in the first minute. For EUR/USD the typical release-minute move (0.27%) is about two-thirds of the typical high–low range over the first 15 minutes (0.41%).
The day can go much further than the first minute. Gold's typical move by the New York close (0.71%) is half as big again as its typical release-minute move (0.46%), and on 5 June 2026 EUR/USD went from a 19-pip first minute to 115 pips lower by the close.
The first direction usually holds, but not reliably. EUR/USD finished the New York day on the same side of its pre-release price as after the first minute in 47 of 65 releases, USD/JPY in 50 of 67 and gold in 39 of 62.
The three often move together, at different sizes. On 4 September 2026 EUR/USD fell 39 pips in the release minute while gold fell $83: the release moves the dollar, and each instrument shows it in its own size.

Impact reports what happened. It gives no trading advice, and past moves say nothing certain about the next release.

Common questions

How much does EUR/USD move after NFP?

Typically 0.27% of its price in the release minute (66 releases since March 2021), about 26 pips over the last 12 releases; one release in ten moved it more than 0.52%.

Does the first move after NFP last until the close?

Usually, but not reliably: in 18 of 65 releases EUR/USD finished the New York day on the other side of its pre-release price from where the first minute took it.

Is the move caused by the payrolls figure alone?

Not necessarily. The Employment Situation report carries the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings as well as payrolls, and other US data is sometimes published at the same 8:30 New York time, so each figure describes the market at that moment, not one number in isolation.

How this was measured

Releases. Every US Employment Situation release (Nonfarm Payrolls) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from March 2021 to October 2026 — 67 in all, each at 8:30 New York time — taken from the BLS release archive.
Prices. One-minute EUR/USD, USD/JPY and XAU/USD bars on the bid side, from Impact's price feed (the same data as Impact's charts), from two minutes before each release to 17:00 New York time the same day. These are market prices, not any one broker's execution.
Price just before. The close of the minute before 8:30.
Biggest move in the release minute. How far the price went from that level, in either direction, during the minute starting at 8:30.
Net move after N minutes. The price at the end of the Nth minute after the release, minus the price just before it. Direction is the sign of the move after one minute.
Net move by the New York close. The price at 17:00 New York time on the release day, minus the price just before the release.
Left out. A release where the market was shut (gold on Good Friday) or where the price data has a gap, as listed under the first table. Nothing is estimated to fill a gap.
Updates. Figures are as of 6 October 2026 and will be refreshed as new releases come out.

See it for every release

Impact shows this for each economic release as it happens: second-by-second reaction charts for every instrument the release moved, the spread at news time next to the normal spread, and every past occurrence of the same release.

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