Measured data · last updated 5 October 2026
How much does gold usually move after the US CPI release?
Usually by about 0.39% of its price in the first minute. Across 66 US CPI releases from March 2021 to September 2026, that was gold's typical (median) biggest move inside the release minute; its typical high–low range over the first 15 minutes was 0.78%, and one release in ten moved it more than 0.89% in the first minute alone.
In dollars: over the last 11 US CPI releases (October 2025 to September 2026), gold's biggest move inside the release minute was typically about $31 an ounce, and reached $59 in July 2026.
These are measurements, not estimates: one-minute gold prices around every CPI release, from the same price feed behind Impact's charts. The method is set out in full below.
Gold after US CPI: 66 releases, as a share of the gold price
Gold has more than doubled since 2021 (it was around $1,700–1,900 at the 2021 releases), so dollar moves from different years are not comparable. As a percentage of the price just before each release:
| Measure | Typical release (median) |
1 release in 10 | Largest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest move in the release minute | 0.39% | 0.89% | 1.47% |
| High–low range, first 15 minutes | 0.78% | 1.32% | 1.78% |
| Net move after 5 minutes, either way | 0.32% | 0.81% | 1.64% |
| Net move after 60 minutes, either way | 0.37% | 1.30% | 1.73% |
66 US CPI releases, March 2021 to September 2026 (65 for the 60-minute figure: the price data for 10 February 2022 ends 30 minutes after the release).
The last 11 US CPI releases, in dollars
| Release | Gold just before ($/oz) |
Biggest move in the release minute ($) |
First-minute direction |
High–low range, first 15 min ($) |
Net move after 60 min ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2025 | 4,061 | 31 | Up | 32 | +53 |
| 18 Dec 2025 | 4,320 | 15 | Up | 18 | +12 |
| 13 Jan 2026 | 4,600 | 14 | Up | 20 | +18 |
| 13 Feb 2026 | 4,967 | 32 | Up | 33 | +36 |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 5,190 | 6 | Down | 23 | −9 |
| 10 Apr 2026 | 4,762 | 15 | Up | 21 | +13 |
| 12 May 2026 | 4,697 | 6 | Down | 19 | −7 |
| 10 Jun 2026 | 4,141 | 33 | Up | 36 | +9 |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 4,030 | 59 | Up | 72 | +52 |
| 12 Aug 2026 | 4,426 | 45 | Down | 57 | −8 |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 4,341 | 49 | Down | 70 | +49 |
US dollars per troy ounce, gold bid price. There was no October 2025 CPI release: it was never published because of the 2025 US government shutdown, and the September 2025 figures came out late, on 24 October.
What the tables show
- Most of the move comes in the first minute. The typical release-minute swing (0.39%) is half of the typical high–low range over the whole first 15 minutes (0.78%).
- The first move does not reliably set the hour. In 47 of 65 releases gold was still on the same side of its pre-release price after 60 minutes as after the first minute; in 18 it had crossed back. On 11 September 2026 it fell $45 in the first minute and finished the hour $49 higher.
- The first move goes either way. Among the last 11 releases, some sent gold up in the first minute and some sent it down: the dollar table gives each one.
- Recent releases have moved gold more in dollars. Partly because gold is priced far higher: the percentage table is the fair comparison across years.
- The spread widens in the same minute. At the US CPI release of 12 August 2026 (8:30 New York time), Impact measured gold's median spread at news time at 100, against a normal spread of 18 read on 28 August 2026: 5.6 times wider. That is one release, and other US data often prints at the same moment, so it describes the market then, not CPI alone. How the spread at news time is shown.
Impact reports what happened. It gives no trading advice, and past moves say nothing certain about the next release.
Common questions
How much does gold move in the first hour after CPI?
Measured 60 minutes after the release, gold's net move either way was typically 0.37% of its price, and 1.30% at one release in ten (65 releases, March 2021 to September 2026).
Does gold's first move after CPI hold?
Not reliably: in 18 of 65 releases gold had crossed back to the other side of its pre-release price by the end of the hour.
Is the move caused by CPI alone?
Not necessarily. CPI is published at 8:30 New York time, and other US figures are often published at the same moment, so each figure here describes the market at that moment, not CPI in isolation.
How this was measured
- Releases. Every US Consumer Price Index release published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from March 2021 to September 2026 — 66 in all, each at 8:30 New York time — taken from the BLS release archive.
- Prices. One-minute XAU/USD bars on the bid side, from Impact's price feed (the same data as Impact's charts), from one minute before each release to 60 minutes after it. These are market prices, not any one broker's execution.
- Price just before. The close of the minute before 8:30.
- Biggest move in the release minute. How far gold went from that price, in either direction, during the minute starting at 8:30.
- Net move after N minutes. The price at the end of the Nth minute after the release, minus the price just before it. Direction is the sign of the move after one minute.
- Across releases. The five-year table gives the median, the 90th percentile (“1 release in 10”) and the largest value, each as a percentage of the price just before the release.
- Other data at the same time. Other US figures are often published at 8:30 on the same morning, so a move describes the market at that moment, not CPI in isolation.
- Updates. Figures are as of 25 September 2026 and will be refreshed as new releases come out.
See also: how much EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY move after US CPI, how wide forex spreads get at CPI, Nonfarm Payrolls and Fed decisions, measured the same way, and prop firms' news-trading rules next to these measurements.
See it for every release
Impact shows this for each economic release as it happens: second-by-second reaction charts for gold and every other instrument the release moved, the spread at news time next to the normal spread, and every past occurrence of the same release.